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Watson–Glaser Inference

Watson–Glaser Inference gives you a passage of assumed-true facts and asks you to grade a proposed inference on a five-point scale — True, Probably True, Insufficient Data, Probably False, False — judged strictly from the passage.

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How to think about it

  1. Treat the passage as true and ask how strongly it supports the inference.
  2. Learn the five grades as bands of probability, and where their boundaries sit.
  3. Grade from the passage only — not from what you know about the world.
  4. Use Insufficient Data when the passage genuinely does not lean either way, not as a safe default.

The most common trap

Grading from world knowledge instead of the passage.

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Question preview

Watson–Glaser Inferencecontradicted inferencehard

Every item that is displayed in the east wing was made by a local artist who lives in the surrounding county. None of the works produced by those local artists, whatever their medium, is currently available for sale. The carved wooden chair, which many visitors stop to admire, stands in the east wing.

Statement: The carved chair in the east wing is for sale.

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